Working Papers 2010-2023

23.03 Martin Brown, Jan Schmitz and Christian Zehnder Moral Constraints, Social Norm Enforcement and Strategic Default in Weak and Strong Economic Conditions
23.02 Martin Brown, Jan Schmitz and Christian Zehnder Communication and Hidden Action: A Credit Market Experiment
23.01 Piero Gottardi, Vincent Maurin and Cyril Monnet Fragility of Secured Credit Chains
22.04 Lucas Fuhrer and Nils Herger Real interest rates and population growth across generations
22.03 Cyril Monnet and Todd Keister Central Bank Digital Currency: Stability and Information
22.02R Sylvia Kaufmann Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: A retrospect on the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting.
22.02 Sylvia Kaufmann Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: A retrospect on the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting.
22.01 Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt The Political Economy of Early COVID-19 Interventions in US States
21.01 Raphael Auer, Cyril Monnet and Hyun Song Shin Distributed Ledgers and the Governance of Money
20.06 Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt Optimally Controlling an Epidemic
20.05 Dirk Niepelt Monetary Policy with Reserves and CBDC: Optimality, Equivalence, and Politics
20.04 Toni Beutler, Matthias Gubler, Simona Hauri and Sylvia Kaufmann Bank lending in Switzerland: Capturing cross-sectional heterogeneity and asymmetry over time 
20.03 Sylvia Kaufmann Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: The information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now and forecasting
20.02 Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt Tractable Epidemiological Models for Economic Analysis
20.01 Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt On the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic
19.06 Nils Herger Unregulated and regulated free banking. The case of Switzerland reinterpreted
19.05 Markus K. Brunnermeier and Dirk Niepelt  On the Equivalence of Private and Public Money
19.04 Chao Gu, Cyril Monnet, Ed Nosal and Randall Wright On the Instability of Banking and Other Financial Intermediation 
19.03 Simon Beyeler Streamlining Time-varying VAR with a Factor Structure in the Parameters
19.02 Maria Bolboaca and Sarah Fischer Unraveling News: Reconciling Conflicting Evidence
19.01 Maria Bolboaca and Sarah Fischer News Shocks: Different Effects in Boom and Recession?
18.03 Stephan Imhof, Cyril Monnet and Shengxing Zhang The Risk-Taking Channel of Liquidity Regulations and Monetary Policy
18.02 Dirk Niepelt Reserves for All? Central Bank Digital Currency, Deposits, and their (Non)-Equivalence
18.01 Nicole Aregger Asset Prices under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes
17.04 Nils Herger Testing the interest parity condition with Irving Fisher’s example of Indian rupee and sterlingbonds in the London financial market (1869-1906).
17.03 Nicole Aregger and Jessica Leutert Unconventional Monetary Policy under Appreciation Pressure -The Role of Financial Frictions
17.02 Nicole Aregger and Jessica Leutert Policy Evaluation by the Synthetic Control Approach: The Case of the Swiss Franc
17.01 Nils Herger An empirical assessment of the Swedish Bullionist Controversy
16.08R Simon Beyeler and Sylvia Kaufmann Factor augmented VAR revisited - A sparse dynamic factor model approach
16.08 Simon Beyeler and Sylvia Kaufmann Factor augmented VAR revisited - A sparse dynamic factor model approach
16.07 Adrien Alvero and Andreas M. Fischer Exchange rate floor and central bank balance sheets: Simple spillover tests of the Swiss franc
16.06 Sylvia Kaufmann Hidden Markov models in time series, with applications in economics
16.05 Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt Fiscal Federalism, Taxation and Grants
16.04 Pinar Yesin Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc
16.03 Pinar Yesin Exchange Rate Predictability and State-of-the-Art Models
16.02 Gregor Bäurle, Daniel Kaufmann,
Sylvia Kaufmann and Rodney W. Strachan		 Changing dynamics at the zero lower bound
16.01 Alin Marius Andries, Andreas M. Fischer and Pinar Yesin The impact of international swap lines on stock returns of banks in emerging markets
15.05 Toni Beutler, Robert Bichsel, Adrian Bruhin and Jayson Danton The Impact of Interest Rate Risk on Bank Lending
15.04 Nils Herger An uncovered interest parity condition that worked – The continental investment demand for London bills of exchange during the gold standard (1880 -1914).
15.03 Raphael A. Auer Human Capital and the Dynamic Effects of Trade
15.02 Pinar Yesin Capital flow waves to and from Switzerland before and after the financial crisis
15.01 Raphael A. Auer Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi
14.07 Harris Dellas and Dirk Niepelt Austerity
14.06 Romain Baeriswyl Intertemporal discoordination in the 100 percent reserve banking system
14.05 Raphael A. Auer and Aaron Mehrotra Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific
14.04 Sylvia Kaufmann K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?
14.03 Paul Gaggl and Sylvia Kaufmann The Cyclical Component of Labor MarketPolarization and Jobless Recoveries in the US
14.02 Nils Herger and Steve McCorriston Horizontal, Vertical, and Conglomerate FDI: Evidence from Cross Border Acquisitions
14.01 Philipp Harms, Jaewon Jung and Oliver Lorz Offshoring and Sequential Production Chains: A General-Equilibrium Analysis
13.08 Nils Herger Market Entries and Exits and the Nonlinear Behaviour of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices
13.07 Irineu de Carvalho Filho Risk-off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: the Role of Capital Flows
13.06 Pinar Yesin Foreign Currency Loans and Systemic Risk in Europe
13.05 Harris Dellas and Dirk Niepelt Credibility For Sale
13.04 Sylvia Kaufmann and Christian Schuhmacher Bayesian Estimation of Sparse Dynamic Factor Models with Order-Independent Identification
13.03 Raphael A. Auer What Drives Target2 Balances? Evidence From a Panel Analysis
13.02 Nils Herger On Discrete Location Choice Models
13.01 Raphael A. Auer Product Heterogeneity, Cross-Country Taste Differences, and the Consumption Home Bias
12.03 Toni Beutler Forecasting Exchange Rates with Commodity Convenience Yields
12.02 Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt Economic and Politico-Economic Equivalence
12.01 Filippo Brutti and Philip Sauré Transmission of Sovereign Risk in the Euro Crisis
11.11 Toni Beutler and Mathieu Grobéty The Collateral Channel under Imperfect Debt Enforcement
11.10 Philipp Harms and Pierre-Guillaume Méon An FDI is an FDI is an FDI? The growth effects of greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions in developing countries
11.09 Yves Ortiz Prices and Choices in the Swiss Health Care Insurance Market
11.08 Yves Ortiz and Martin Schüle Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction: A Probabilistic Multi-Agent Model
11.07 Salvatore Dell’Erba and Dennis Reinhardt Surfing the Capital Waves: A sector-level examination of surges in FDI inflows
11.06 Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt Ageing, Government Budgets, Retirement, and Growth
11.05 Emanuel Kohlscheen The Journal Rankings of Central Banks
11.04 Raphael Auer and Philip Sauré Spatial Competition in Quality, Demand-Induced Innovation, and Schumpeterian Growth
11.03 Raphael Auer and Philip Sauré CHF Strength and Swiss Export Performance – Evidence and Outlook From a Disaggregate Analysis
11.02 Raphael Auer, Kathrin Degen and Andreas M. Fischer Low-Wage Import Competition, Inflationary Pressure, and Industry Dynamics in Europe
11.01 Roland Hodler Development (Paradigm) Failures
10.05 Roland Hodler and Paul A. Raschky Foreign Aid and Enlightened Leaders
10.04 Roland Hodler Compulsory Voting and Public Finance
10.03 Philipp Harms, Mathias Hoffmann and Christina Ortseifer The Home Bias in Equities and Distribution Costs
10.02 Dennis Reinhardt Into the Allocation Puzzle - A Sectoral Analysis
10.01 Roland Hodler, Simon Loertscher and Dominic Rohner Biased Experts, Costly Lies, and Binary Decisions

Working Papers 2000-2009

09.06 Philipp Harms and Mathias Hoffmann Deciding to Peg the Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: The Role of Private-Sector Debt
09.05 Raphael Auer Product Heterogeneity, Within-Industry Trade Patterns, and the Home Bias of Consumption?
09.04 Philippe Bacchetta, Eric van Wincoop and Toni Beutler Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?
09.03 Raphael Auer The Colonial and Geographic Origins of Comparative Development
09.02 Philipp Harms and Philipp an de Meulen The Demographics of Expropriation Risk
09.01 Philipp Harms, Oliver Lorz and Dieter Urban Offshoring Along the Production Chain
08.05 Dirk Niepelt Debt Maturity without Commitment
08.04 Nils Herger Explaining Bank Failures in the United States: The Role of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Systemic Risk, Banking Regulation, and Contagion
08.03 Gregor Bäurle and Tobias Menz Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Model: A DSGE-VAR Approach for Switzerland
08.02 Elmar Mertens Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion
08.01 Elmar Mertens Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?
07.05 Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt Population Ageing, Government Budgets, and Productivity Growth in Politico-Economic Equilibrium
07.04 Oya Celasun and Philipp Harms How does private foreign borrowing affect the risk of sovereign default in developing countries?
07.03 Philipp Harms and Marco Kretschmann Words, Deeds, and Outcomes: A Survey on the Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Regimes
07.02 Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt The Future of Social Security
07.01 Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle
06.04 Philippe Bacchetta, Elmar Mertens and Eric van Wincoop Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?
06.03 Assar Lindbeck and Dirk Niepelt The Stability Pact—Rationales, Problems, Alternatives
06.02  Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta, Romain Ranciere and Kenneth Rogoff Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development
06.01  Pinar Yesin Financing Government Expenditures Optimally
05.05 Elmar Mertens Structural Shocks and the Comovements between Output and Interest Rates
05.04  Dirk Niepelt Starving the Beast? Intra-Generational Conflict and Balanced Budget Rules
05.03  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Incomplete Information Processing: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle
05.02 Marlene Amstad and Andreas M. Fischer Shock Identification of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Daily Panels
05.01  Andreas M. Fischer Measuring Income Elasticity for Swiss Money Demand: What do the cantons say about financial innovation?
04.07  Dirk Niepelt Timing Tax Evasion
04.06  Marlene Amstad and Andreas M. Fischer Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment
04.05  Philipp Harms and Michael Rauber Foreign aid and developing countries’ creditworthiness
04.04  Andreas M. Fischer Price Clustering in the FX Market: A Disaggregate Analysis using Central Bank Interventions
04.03  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing
04.02  Pinar Yesin Tax Collection Costs, Tax Evasion and Optimal Interest Rates
04.01  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop A Scapegoat Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations
03.07  Samuel Reynard Optimal Cyclical Monetary Policy: Does Steady-State Inflation Matter?
03.06  Andreas M. Fischer On the Inadequacy of Newswire Reports for Empirical Research on Foreign Exchange Interventions
03.05  Bertrand Rime The New Basel Accord: Implications of the Co-existence between the Standardized Approach and the Internal Ratings-based Approach
03.04  Philipp Harms and Matthias Lutz Aid, Governance, and Private Foreign Investment: Some Puzzling Findings and a Possible Explanation
03.03 Ricarda Demarmels and Andreas M. Fischer Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Long-Run
03.02  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?
03.01  Michael J. Dueker and Andreas M. Fischer Fixing Swiss Potholes: The Importance and Cyclical Nature of Improvements
02.08  Monique Ebell and Christian Haefke Product Market Deregulation and Labor Market Outcomes
02.07  Philipp Harms Deregulation and the current account
02.06  Philipp Harms and Stefan Zink Growing into and out of social conflict
02.05  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Why Do Consumer Prices react less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?
02.04  Robert Bichsel and Jürg Blum The Relationship Between Risk and Capital in Swiss Commercial Banks: A Panel Study
02.03 Andreas M. Fischer Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction?
02.02  Ricarda Demamerls and Andreas M.Fischer Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Last Thirty Years
02.01  Dueker, Michael J., Andreas M. Fischer and Robert D. Dittmar Stochastic Capital Depreciation and the Comovement of Hours and Productivity
01.07  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade
01.06  Urs W. Birchler and Andréa M. Maechler Do Depositors Discipline Swiss Banks?
01.05  Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta and Abhijit Banerjee A Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises
01.04  Don Morgan, Bertrand Rime and Philip Strahan Bank Integration and Business Volatility in the U.S.
01.03 Bertrand Rime and Kevin J. Stiroh The Performance of Universal Banks: Evidence from Switzerland
01.02  Michael Dueker and Andreas M. Fischer The Mechanics of a Successful Exchange-Rate Peg: Lessons for Emerging Markets
01.01  Monique C. Ebell Why Are Asset Returns More Volatile during Recessions? A Theoretical Explanation
00.14  Urs W. Birchler Are Banks Excessively Monitored?
00.13  Harris Dellas and Martin K. Hess Financial Development and Stock Market Performance
00.12  Nicolas A. Cuche Alternative Indicator of Monetary Policy for a Small Open Economy
00.11  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Trade Flows, Prices, and The Exchange Rate Regime
00.10  Nicolas A. Cuche Monetary Policy with Forward-looking Rules: The Swiss Case
00.09  Andréa M. Maechler The Politics of Trade Liberalization in the Presence of FDI Incentives
00.08  Jürg Blum The Limits of Market Discipline in Reducing Banks' Risk Taking
00.07  Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta and Abhijit Banerjee Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints
00.06  Harris Dellas and Martin K. Hess Financial Development and the Sensitivity of Stock Markets to External Influences
00.05  Bertrand Rime Bank Capital Behaviour: Empirical Evidence for Switzerland
00.04  Andreas M. Fischer Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates?
00.03  Philippe Bacchetta Monetary Policy with Foreign Currency Debt
00.02  Dominik Egli and Bertrand Rime The UBS-SBC Merger and Competition in the Swiss Retail Banking Sector
00.01  Urs W. Birchler Bankruptcy Priority for Bank Deposits: a Contract Theoretic Explanation

Working Papers 1993-1999

99.04  Jeffrey H. Nilsen Trade Credit and the Bank Lending Channel
99.03  Jeffrey H. Nilsen and Riccardo Rovelli Modeling Financial Fragility in Transition Economies
99.02  Nicolas A. Cuche and Martin K. Hess Estimating Monthly GDP in a General Kalman Filter Framework: Evidence from Switzerland
99.01  Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta and Abhijit Banerjee Capital Markets and the Instability of Open Economies
98.03 Jeffrey H. Nilsen Why Did Czech Banks Switch From Loans in 1995?
98.02  Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta Philippe and Abhijit Banerjee Financial Liberalization and Volatility in Emerging Market Economies
98.01  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting and Volatility
97.01 Philippe Bacchetta and Stefan Gerlach Consumption and Credit Constraints: International Evidence
96.01 Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Trade in Nominal Assets and Net International Capital Flows
95.11 Philippe Bacchetta and María Paz Espinosa Exchange-of-information Clauses in International Tax Treaties
95.10 Philippe Bacchetta Exchange Rate Policy and Disinflation: The Spanish Experience in the ERM
95.09 Philippe Bacchetta and Ramon Caminal Do Capital Market Imperfections Exacerbate Output Fluctuations?
95.08 Philippe Bacchetta and Fernando Ballabriga The Impact of Monetary Policy and Bank Lending: Some International Evidence
95.07 Walter Wasserfallen American vs. European Option Pricing Models: Does it Really Matter?
95.06  Walter Wasserfallen and Christoph Schenk Portfolio Insurance for the Small Investor
95.05 Philippe Bacchetta Capital Controls and the Political Discount: The Spanish Experience in the Late 1980s
95.04 Walter Wasserfallen and Daniel Liechti The Hedging Performance of Swiss Interest Rate Futures
95.03 Philippe Bacchetta and Harris Dellas Firm Restructuring and the Optimal Speed of Trade Reform
95.02  Walter Wasserfallen Interest Rate Differentials and the Structure of Banks' Balance Sheets
95.01 René M. Stulz and Walter Wasserfallen Foreign Equity Investment Restrictions, Capital Flight, and Shareholder Wealth Maximization, Theory and Evidence
94.03 Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Net Capital Flows under Exchange Rate and Price Volatility
94.02 Philippe Bacchetta and María Paz Espinosa Information Sharing and Tax Competition among Governments
94.01  Philippe Bacchetta Regional Investment and Growth in the European Community
93.03 Walter Wasserfallen and Christian Wittleder Pricing Initial Public Offerings, Evidence from Germany
93.02 Walter Wasserfallen and Guido Kürsteiner Money, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in the Short Run
93.01 Thomas Stucki and Walter Wasserfallen Stock and Option Markets: The Swiss Evidence